XRP’s recent price action reflects a growing divide within the crypto market. Analysts point to steady institutional buying even as retail traders continue to pull back. Spot XRP ETFs recorded nearly $8 million in inflows in a single session, extending a four-day run of positive institutional demand. Despite this, price momentum has softened, weighed down by fading derivatives activity and thinning market liquidity.

At the same time, XRP futures open interest has drifted toward yearly lows near $3.29 billion, highlighting a clear drop in conviction among leveraged traders. As fewer speculative positions remain open, XRP has struggled to generate sustained upside traction.

This widening gap between institutional allocation and retail participation is increasingly shaping XRP’s short-term outlook, raising doubts over whether ETF demand alone can anchor prices.

What’s driving XRP’s slippage?

The clearest source of pressure is emerging from the derivatives market. Futures open interest, which captures the total value of outstanding leveraged contracts, is hovering just above its year-low. When open interest trends lower, it typically signals traders exiting positions rather than committing fresh capital, reducing speculative momentum and weakening underlying price support.

This contraction is part of a broader market pattern. Across crypto, futures activity has declined sharply, with total open interest falling to around $128 billion, the weakest level since early January, according to CoinGlass. In such conditions, altcoins often feel the impact first, particularly assets like XRP that rely heavily on short-term trading flows to sustain momentum.

Why it matters

Even as derivatives participation fades, institutional interest in XRP remains resilient. Data from SoSoValue shows that XRP spot ETFs drew close to $8 million in inflows on Monday, more than doubling the previous session’s figures. Total cumulative inflows now sit at $1.24 billion, with net assets around $1.36 billion, underlining continued engagement from longer-term investors.

That support, however, has its limits. Samer Hasn, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com, notes that “liquidity is shrinking across channels,” pointing out that recent ETF inflows followed $1.3 billion in outflows the prior week. Without renewed retail participation and rising trading volumes, institutional inflows may help cushion declines but are unlikely to drive a sustained rebound.

Impact on the crypto market

XRP’s softness mirrors a broader shift in market positioning. Persistent macro uncertainty has encouraged investors to scale back exposure to higher-risk assets, favouring safer alternatives. Within crypto, this rotation has benefited Bitcoin relative to altcoins, leaving assets like XRP more vulnerable when liquidity tightens.

The consequences are already visible in recent price behaviour. XRP has logged seven consecutive down sessions, extending a broader pattern in which it has fallen in 13 of the last 14 trading days. In a low-liquidity environment, even moderate selling pressure can have an outsized impact, reinforcing bearish sentiment and deterring new participation.

Expert outlook

Market analysts remain cautious about XRP’s near-term trajectory. While ETF inflows provide an underlying source of demand, they have not been sufficient to counterbalance the steady decline in derivatives activity. A more durable recovery would likely require futures open interest to stabilise and trading volumes to pick up alongside an improvement in broader risk sentiment.

Until those signals emerge, XRP appears exposed to further downside. Traders are watching closely for signs of renewed speculative engagement, particularly any sustained recovery in open interest or a shift in overall crypto market tone. For now, institutional inflows may serve more as a stabilising force than a clear catalyst.

Key takeaway

XRP’s recent decline underscores a growing disconnect between institutional allocation and retail participation. While ETF inflows continue to offer support, weakening derivatives activity and shrinking liquidity are weighing on price action. Until speculative demand returns, XRP may struggle to regain momentum. Futures open interest remains the key metric to watch for early signs of a turnaround.

XRP technical outlook

XRP is consolidating following a strong advance and subsequent pullback, with price now stabilising near the middle of its recent trading range. Bollinger Bands have tightened after an earlier expansion, signalling a reduction in volatility as directional momentum cools.

Momentum indicators point to moderation rather than reversal. The RSI is gradually climbing toward its midpoint, suggesting improving momentum from previously weaker levels without entering overbought territory. Trend strength has eased, with ADX readings indicating a slowdown in directional intensity compared with earlier phases.

From a structural perspective, price remains confined between resistance in the $2.40–$2.60 zone and support near $1.80, reinforcing the view that XRP is currently in a consolidation phase rather than a period of active price discovery.