Gold’s surge toward $4,000 an ounce looks more like a structural uptrend than a short-lived spike. With 39 all-time highs already this year and futures hovering within 1% of $3,900/oz, the setup points toward the early stages of what could be a gold supercycle: easier Fed policy, a softer US dollar, and relentless safe-haven demand.

Gold, a scarce and durable commodity with centuries of history as a store of wealth, is once again at the centre of market attention. Yet the pace of the rally and hype around events like Zinjin Gold’s blockbuster IPO (+60% on debut) hint that momentum, not just fundamentals, is driving prices higher. The evidence leans toward a supercycle narrative, but whether $4,000 proves the beginning of that trend or the top of a speculative wave depends on what plays out next.

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Key takeaways

• Gold has climbed close to $3,900/oz in 2025, logging 39 fresh highs and putting $4,000 in sight.
  
  
• Federal Reserve rate cuts have created a powerful backdrop for non-yielding assets like gold.
  
  
• The US dollar is losing its shine as a safe store of value amid debt concerns and broad devaluation.
  
  
• Safe-haven flows remain firm, though speculative excess is a risk.
  
  
• Zinjin Gold’s IPO boom (+60%) highlights the spillover of investor appetite into gold-linked equities.
  
  

Gold’s record-breaking run

As futures prices moved within touching distance of $3,900/oz, gold cemented its role as one of 2025’s standout performers.

This year is shaping up as one of the strongest for precious metals in decades. Both gold and silver have outpaced most major asset classes, even as equities continue to grind higher. For traders, commodity CFDs offer a flexible way to capture these moves without holding physical bullion.

Federal Reserve impact on Gold prices

The Fed’s shift toward a more dovish tone has added fuel to gold’s rally. After starting the year with hawkish rhetoric, policymakers have now trimmed the funds rate and signalled that further cuts remain on the table in upcoming meetings.

The relationship between Fed interest rates and gold prices continues to strengthen. Lower yields cut the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, making gold more attractive and reinforcing the case for a potential gold supercycle. Markets are increasingly convinced this easing cycle could stretch into 2026, keeping demand elevated.

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The dollar devaluation effect

Gold’s strength is tightly linked to the weakening US dollar. The Dollar Index (DXY) has slipped to about 97.87, down modestly on the day.

But it’s not just day-to-day forex moves - deeper concerns about US sovereign debt are undermining trust in the dollar’s long-term role. Gold has historically been inversely correlated with USD, but 2025’s devaluation is accelerating flows into bullion faster than in past cycles, bolstering talk of a gold supercycle.

How key forces interact with gold prices

Gold safe-haven investment in 2025

Safe-haven demand has accelerated sharply. Even as the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq continue to notch gains, the threat of a government shutdown and possible delays in key economic data releases are driving investors to gold.

Other traditional safe havens, such as the dollar and yen, are lagging. That leaves gold, silver, and the Swiss franc as attractive alternatives - with gold standing out as the ultimate safe-haven investment.

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Mania or Gold supercycle?

The mix of record highs, speculative IPOs, and strong inflows suggests the rally is being driven by both fundamentals and momentum.

For optimists, these are early signs of a gold supercycle - a prolonged structural uptrend in commodities, fuelled by monetary shifts and investor demand. For sceptics, the rapid ascent raises the risk of a speculative bubble. The deciding factors will be the Fed’s policy path, confidence in fiat currencies, and the resilience of safe-haven flows.

Gold price forecast: Technical insights today

Momentum indicators continue to favour the bulls. Trading volume confirms strong buying pressure, with sellers failing to wrestle back control.

If momentum persists, gold could decisively break above the $4,000 mark. On the downside, $3,630 serves as the first major support level, while $3,310 is likely to anchor any deeper correction.

Investment implications

For traders, this rally offers both reward and risk.

• Short-term: Momentum traders may look to ride the push toward $4,000, especially during periods of heightened political tension.
  
  
• Medium-term: If $4,000 proves sticky, a period of consolidation or correction becomes likely.
  
  
• Long-term: If the supercycle thesis holds, gold could remain among the decade’s best-performing assets.

How to trade Gold on Deriv: Step-by-step

Gold’s rally offers opportunity - but execution is key.

1. Set up on Deriv MT5
   
   
   • Sign up, log in, open a CFD account, and add XAUUSD to your symbols.
     
     
   • Use Deriv MT5’s charting tools to track real-time action.
     
     
2. Trading strategies
   
   
   • Breakout: Trade momentum if gold clears $4,000.
     
     
   • Range: Buy near $3,630 and sell near highs.
     
     
   • Pullback: Enter on dips toward $3,310 if fundamentals remain supportive.
     
     
3. Risk management
   
   
   • Place stop-losses around support levels.
     
     
   • Limit risk to 1–2% of account equity per trade.
     
     
   • Diversify with other CFDs such as indices, forex, or silver.
     
     
4. Next steps
   
   
   • Practise on a demo account, then scale up with real capital.
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   • Explore more about gold CFDs on Deriv.