Precious metals ended 2025 at levels that prompted investors to reassess what constitutes “normal” pricing. Data showed that silver delivered a gain of more than 150% over the year - its strongest performance since 1979 - briefly pushing above $80 an ounce. Gold rose by roughly 65%, posting its best annual advance in decades, while platinum climbed to a 17-year high following a sudden repricing of supply constraints and industrial demand.

Moves of that magnitude rarely unwind quietly. As 2026 gets underway, the key question has shifted. It’s no longer whether precious metals were justified in rallying, but whether prices can remain elevated once volatility subsides, leverage is unwound, and macroeconomic conditions begin to stabilise. The answer will hinge on interest rates, real-economy demand, and how much excess enthusiasm the market has already worked through.

What could drive precious metals in 2026?

Monetary policy sits at the centre of the 2026 outlook. Analysts point to expectations of further US rate cuts as a critical support for gold and silver, reducing the opportunity cost of holding assets that offer no yield.

The Federal Reserve delivered a 25-basis-point cut in December, lowering the target range to 3.50%–3.75%.

Meeting minutes indicated that policymakers remain willing to ease further should inflation continue its downward trend.

Market watchers have noted that silver’s response has been more volatile than gold’s, reflecting its dual role as both a commodity and a hedge. In addition to attracting safe-haven flows, demand for silver from solar panels, electronics, and electric vehicles has tightened a market already dealing with years of supply shortages. With inventories depleted and liquidity thinning toward the end of the year, even modest shifts in positioning had an outsized impact - amplifying both gains and pullbacks.

Why it matters

The implications extend well beyond price performance. Silver’s importance as both a financial asset and an industrial input means sharp price swings feed directly into production costs, portfolio decisions and inflation dynamics. Bank of America lifted its 2026 silver forecast to $65 an ounce, citing persistent supply deficits, while cautioning that elevated prices could begin to dampen demand at the margins.

Gold’s influence is broader and more measured. Its late-2025 strength was underpinned by geopolitical uncertainty, including ongoing tensions in the Middle East and ambiguity around US foreign policy direction. Analysts argue that gold’s appeal during this phase was driven less by speculative behaviour and more by capital preservation in an environment where long-term policy visibility remains limited.

Impact on markets, industry and investors

Volatility has already forced adjustments. CME Group’s increase in margin requirements for precious metals futures triggered rapid deleveraging, particularly in silver. Prices fell sharply from near $86 to the low-$70s within days. These moves functioned as a structural reset rather than a collapse in fundamentals, clearing excess leverage from a crowded trade.

Despite the turbulence, investment interest remains firm. Silver ETFs saw substantial inflows throughout 2025, outperforming gold ETFs and many major equity indices. Platinum has also attracted renewed attention, with UBS raising price targets as constrained supply met fresh investment demand - exacerbated by reduced output from South Africa, a key producer.

Expert outlook

Forecasts for 2026 reflect a wide range of outcomes. A Reuters survey of 39 analysts expects silver to average around $50 an ounce next year, while Bank of America’s $65 projection assumes that structural supply deficits remain unresolved. Both estimates sit well below the peaks reached in 2025, underscoring the difficulty in justifying momentum-driven extremes solely on the basis of fundamentals.

Platinum and palladium face more complex dynamics. UBS notes that if platinum prices remain elevated, some industrial demand - particularly from autocatalysts - could shift back toward palladium. This risk is amplified by the slower-than-expected adoption of electric vehicles. Across the precious metals space, interest rates, physical supply and policy choices will determine whether 2025 proves to be a cyclical high or the foundation for a higher long-term range.

Key takeaway

Precious metals enter 2026 following one of their strongest rallies in decades, fuelled by easing rate expectations, supply constraints and geopolitical uncertainty. Silver’s explosive move has introduced both opportunity and risk, gold continues to act as the market’s stabilising force, and platinum reflects shifting industrial realities. Whether prices can hold at elevated levels will depend on the pace of rate cuts, the resilience of industrial demand and how persistent supply tightness remains once speculative excess has fully unwound.

Silver technical insights

Silver remains in a broader bullish structure but has entered a consolidation phase following its sharp rally. The recent pullback has relieved pressure from momentum indicators rather than signalling a change in trend.

RSI has cooled and now sits just above its midpoint, suggesting momentum has reset into more neutral territory while underlying demand remains intact. Bollinger Bands, which expanded aggressively during the rally, are beginning to narrow - pointing to stabilising volatility rather than renewed selling pressure.

As long as silver holds above the US$57 support level, the uptrend remains technically intact. A decisive break below this area would open the door to deeper retracements toward US$50 and US$46.93. On the upside, renewed momentum would likely emerge if buyers regain control above recent highs.